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protopulse January 8, 2017 01:29

How often do and what determines when Orodruth spawns?
Been playing smithing characters lately and saw in a few logs of a mention of Orodruth, which is a unique forge. Haven't seen it yet in any of the games I've played.

So I have to wonder what determines if it spawns at all? And what depth should I scum for it if I want to see it?

Pete Mack January 8, 2017 02:23

It occurs 1 in 10 enchanted forges, and enchanted forges have a roughly 1% higher chance of occurring every dungeon level deeper. So there's roughly a 2% -- actually 1-(.999)^19 -- chance of Orodruth on dl 19. It is pretty rare.

protopulse January 8, 2017 04:58

Ah, no wonder I haven't seen it yet. I guess scumming 950 feet is my best bet then.

Pete Mack January 8, 2017 05:33

But there's an 84% or better chance it occurs earlier. If it does and you miss it, it will not regenerate.

protopulse January 8, 2017 08:59

84%? Where did you get that number?

Actually, how does forge generation work? 1 in 10 enchanted forges is Orodruth. How many percent of forges are enchanted? How often do forges spawn?

Pete Mack January 8, 2017 09:09

edit: my bad. 16%, not 84%.
16% = 1-.999^(18*19/2)
The cumulative probability for Orodruth over levels 1-18. The same calculations work for enchanted forges, except using .99 instead of .999

protopulse January 9, 2017 04:59

Do you know the probability that Orodruth spawns on each level? Say level 1 (50 feet) versus level 19 (950 feet)? It's easier for me to understand if you explain it to me in those terms.

Pete Mack January 9, 2017 05:30

An additional 1/1000 roll on each level, so 1/1000 at level 1 -(999/1000)^2 ~ 0.002 at dl 2, etc, up to 1 - .999^19, just above the throne room. If you visit levels twice, there's a chance it will show up each time, so that increases the odds.

protopulse January 9, 2017 06:32

I see. Okay thank you.

captnamazing April 17, 2017 22:10

i saw it once man

it was fuckin awesome

i crafted some stuff

then i died

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