Thread: Damage vs Accuracy View Single Post March 30, 2018, 17:07 #27 Gordon Scout   Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 31 Here is a prettied up version of a python script for calculating this that I found on a link on that site. Code: ```import argparse argparser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description='Calculate the probability of run of n events in m trials where p is the probabilty of an event') argparser.add_argument('-n', type=int, required=True, help='run length') argparser.add_argument('-m', type=int, required=True, help='number of trials') argparser.add_argument('-p', type=float, required=True, help='probability of an event') args = argparser.parse_args() N = args.n M = args.m p = args.p q = 1-p #probability of failure #setting up P_i (P[i] will be the probability that we see a run of length n in i flips) P = [None for i in range(0,M+1)] #initialize list to all Nones for i in range(0,N): #set boundary conditions, (not including P_N (r) P[i] = 0 P[N] =p**N #P_N (r) is now equal to p^N #now for main recursion (using a loop here instead) for i in range(N,M): P[i +1] = P[i] + (1-P[i-N]) * q * P[N] print 'A run of',N, 'events of probability',p, 'has a chance of 1 in',1.0 / P[M], 'of occuring in',M, 'trials'```  