Thread: Damage vs Accuracy View Single Post
March 30, 2018, 02:16   #26
t4nk
Swordsman

Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 310
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Gordon One other thing. When I was looking for a monster to try the Wand of Annihilation on, I ran into Ariel, Queen of Air. Seeing as I knew that the wand wouldn't work on her, I cast Mana Storm instead. It failed five times in a row. With @'s current 14% chance of failure for this spell, the probability of that happening by chance is 1 in 18593. Has anyone checked the RNG used for spell failure for correlation?
This is a fun question. I searched the internet for answers and this article seems pretty good: http://www.askamathematician.com/201...swer-is-known/
I skipped the formulas, of course (maybe Nick can verify them ). But there are also some human language examplanations and even some code. So I played a bit with it on my machine. If you cast mana storm 100 times, you'll get a streak of 5 or more failures in a row with about 1% probability. 18000 casts give you more than 50% chance of getting a bad run.
I guess there is a useful lesson here - always be prepared for the worst