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Old February 3, 2017, 04:05   #62
Pete Mack
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Seattle, WA
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I just did some math. (The displayed hit probability is hopelessly wrong for the monster info screen.) It depends a lot on your melee skills. Let
M = melee skill = base + 3*to_h bonus.
AC = monster AC
Then hit probability is
.12 + (1-.12-.05)* (M - AC*2/3)/M.

For M = 120 AC = 150 (roughly a dracolich) you will be hitting
26% - Base
40% - With a +10 accuracy ring (or buffed with !Hero alone)
57% - Buffed with !Hero and !Berserk
62% - With all 3 bonuses

So without buffing (Note: not recommended against high AC), your damage improves by .14/.25 = 56%. With heavy buffing, it increase by 9%

For a decent midgame damage output of 50 per blow, that corresponds to 26 and 5 damage per blow, respectively. Of course, if you're using Sting or Harradekket, the numbers are much lower.

TL;DR:
For good melee compared to level appropriate AC, the value is about 2:1 to_d:to_h
For poor melee, always choose to_h.
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