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Old March 30, 2018, 01:16   #26
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 330
t4nk is on a distinguished road
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
One other thing. When I was looking for a monster to try the Wand of Annihilation on, I ran into Ariel, Queen of Air. Seeing as I knew that the wand wouldn't work on her, I cast Mana Storm instead. It failed five times in a row. With @'s current 14% chance of failure for this spell, the probability of that happening by chance is 1 in 18593. Has anyone checked the RNG used for spell failure for correlation?
This is a fun question. I searched the internet for answers and this article seems pretty good:
I skipped the formulas, of course (maybe Nick can verify them ). But there are also some human language examplanations and even some code. So I played a bit with it on my machine. If you cast mana storm 100 times, you'll get a streak of 5 or more failures in a row with about 1% probability. 18000 casts give you more than 50% chance of getting a bad run.
I guess there is a useful lesson here - always be prepared for the worst
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