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Old February 12, 2018, 01:26   #2
Pete Mack
Prophet
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 5,017
Donated: $40
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4 failures in a row is a 1 in 2000 chance. That is expected roughly every 5 games, assuming
a. you use devices about 400x per game.
b. You retry the device on failure.

A more useful estimate is 1 in 300 conditional chance of 3 failures in a row, following the first failure in the sequence. Not a bad risk, but still something you can't mess around with as a matter of course. Anything near 1% is a risk you should only take with deliberation. 4 fails in a row doesn't qualify. You had plenty of chances to heal, and certainly on the last fail you'd have died even if it was successful: the monster attack still would have killed you.
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