Angband.oook.cz
Angband.oook.cz
AboutVariantsLadderForumCompetitionComicScreenshotsFunniesLinks

Go Back   Angband Forums > Angband > Vanilla

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old November 17, 2017, 23:48   #1
Grotug
Knight
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 699
Grotug is on a distinguished road
*Good* mace found in a chest 2-1 level feeling at 450ft

It's nice finding a good mace (+6, +9) as a priest early on, especially when it has good bonuses on it, like telepathy among others. Level feeling? 2-1. Found in a chest on DL9. I've always wondered if good things in chests affect level feelings and sort of ended up assuming they do. I guess not!

Now to die YASD in a few turns from now.
Grotug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old November 18, 2017, 00:05   #2
Pete Mack
Prophet
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 4,346
Donated: $40
Pete Mack is on a distinguished road
Chests don't affect level feelings (as you can probably tell from the "cobwebs and dust".)
Pete Mack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old November 18, 2017, 01:01   #3
Grotug
Knight
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 699
Grotug is on a distinguished road
I wonder what the chances of failing on a wand four (4) times in a row with a 6% fail is? That seems... diminishingly small. My guess without doing the math is that it's around 1 in ten thousand or worse. I wasn't stunned or otherwise compromised. On the third fail I was like "what's going on" on the fourth, I was like "is this thing broken?" Pretty strange feeling.

Grotug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old November 18, 2017, 01:16   #4
Estie
Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 1,478
Estie is on a distinguished road
A bit more than 1 in 100k.
Estie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old November 18, 2017, 02:17   #5
Pete Mack
Prophet
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 4,346
Donated: $40
Pete Mack is on a distinguished road
As always, knock off the first instance when estimating probability for a stream. Yes, 1 in 100000 is right assuming no priors. But there is always a prior in an unexpected stream of failures: the first failure. 2 in 10000 is a better estimate.
Edit:
If you look per game, assuming 100000 player moves (a quick dive) you can expect an event of this type roughly once per game, though the variance is very high. But the OP doesn't report per game. He noticed it happening in the middle of an event stream, hence the need to scale assuming a prior.
Further edit: I'm wrong about once per game, since it's we're specifically talking about repeated spell/device failures. In fact, the odds of this happening are closer to 1 in 100 games, assuming that you make this action one turn in 100. So yeah it's rare. But there are a LOT of games with potential AARs on oook.

Last edited by Pete Mack; November 18, 2017 at 02:31.
Pete Mack is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Item feeling 6: nothing found Grotug Vanilla 22 November 14, 2016 21:39
Level feeling - how good is good? :) Chud Vanilla 2 July 30, 2015 20:31
Level feeling with 3.3.1? fruviad Vanilla 53 August 21, 2014 22:29
'good' feeling? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL... Tiburon Silverflame AAR 2 February 26, 2010 22:14
You have a good feeling... Maupin Vanilla 9 August 22, 2009 11:35


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 09:33.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.