Angband Forums *Good* mace found in a chest 2-1 level feeling at 450ft
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 November 17, 2017, 23:48 #1 Grotug Knight   Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 989 *Good* mace found in a chest 2-1 level feeling at 450ft It's nice finding a good mace (+6, +9) as a priest early on, especially when it has good bonuses on it, like telepathy among others. Level feeling? 2-1. Found in a chest on DL9. I've always wondered if good things in chests affect level feelings and sort of ended up assuming they do. I guess not! Now to die YASD in a few turns from now.
 November 18, 2017, 00:05 #2 Pete Mack Prophet   Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 5,015 Donated: \$40 Chests don't affect level feelings (as you can probably tell from the "cobwebs and dust".)
 November 18, 2017, 01:01 #3 Grotug Knight   Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 989 I wonder what the chances of failing on a wand four (4) times in a row with a 6% fail is? That seems... diminishingly small. My guess without doing the math is that it's around 1 in ten thousand or worse. I wasn't stunned or otherwise compromised. On the third fail I was like "what's going on" on the fourth, I was like "is this thing broken?" Pretty strange feeling.
 November 18, 2017, 01:16 #4 Estie Veteran   Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Germany Posts: 1,566 A bit more than 1 in 100k.
 November 18, 2017, 02:17 #5 Pete Mack Prophet   Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 5,015 Donated: \$40 As always, knock off the first instance when estimating probability for a stream. Yes, 1 in 100000 is right assuming no priors. But there is always a prior in an unexpected stream of failures: the first failure. 2 in 10000 is a better estimate. Edit: If you look per game, assuming 100000 player moves (a quick dive) you can expect an event of this type roughly once per game, though the variance is very high. But the OP doesn't report per game. He noticed it happening in the middle of an event stream, hence the need to scale assuming a prior. Further edit: I'm wrong about once per game, since it's we're specifically talking about repeated spell/device failures. In fact, the odds of this happening are closer to 1 in 100 games, assuming that you make this action one turn in 100. So yeah it's rare. But there are a LOT of games with potential AARs on oook. Last edited by Pete Mack; November 18, 2017 at 02:31.

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