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Old August 26, 2018, 23:23   #1
nic
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Near death experience...

When you play, you will have many encounters that are potentially
lethal. For instance when you meet breathers: a bunch of dragons all doing a breath attack the same round.

* Would it not be nice to have a luck-meter. *
"Nic the great warrior had only 1.25% chance of surviving the dungeon,
be he prevailed!"

Say that you had 5% chance of dying (all dragons breathing) but survive,
then 10% chance of dying in the next encounter.
The cumulative chance of surviving would be 0.95*0.9 (around 85%)

Imagine what that number would be when finishing the game?
If you play solidly, it would be close to 1, but if you want a decent turn count, it would probably be a lot smaller!

It might even be helpful to beginners to see how risky their playing style is...

/nic
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Old August 27, 2018, 02:38   #2
Pete Mack
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The real risks are usually a bit different:
"what are the odds of dying if my wand of TO fails?"
"What are the odds of TS landing me in a room full of high level hounds?"
"What are the odds of getting breathed on followed by a TO failure and further mauling?"
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Old August 27, 2018, 02:44   #3
Derakon
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I guess you could do a simulation at the end of each turn, where every enemy in LOS does their strongest attack while rolling perfectly (but ignoring stuff like stunning, poison, paralysis, etc). Then at the end of the game you could say "you risked death N times to get this far". You could maybe also calculate the odds of a given death actually happening, but that gets hairy when dealing with damage rolls. If Morgoth has a 1 in 20 chance to cast Mana Storm and Vecna has a one in 30 chance of same, and between them they'd need to deal at least 800 damage to kill you, what are the odds of that happening? It's calculable, but it's not the kind of code I'd want to deal with writing.
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Old August 27, 2018, 09:47   #4
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I have implemented exactly this for Sil 1.1.1 a while ago: http://angband.oook.cz/forum/showthr...hlight=mortsil, https://github.com/fph/mortsil .

This only keep tracks of a few of the possible factors; most notably, surviving (potential) blows that could have killed you.

I didn't use Montecarlo (which I suppose would be inaccurate because the probabilities of dying are quite small; maybe one would need something more elaborate like MCMC instead?), but I keep track of the individual probabilities of each hit and damage roll. Most of the relevant code is in https://github.com/fph/mortsil/blob/...Sil/src/mort.c .

I didn't really update this because people did not seem too interested in it.
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Old August 27, 2018, 13:45   #5
Ingwe Ingweron
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nic View Post
When you play, you will have many encounters that are potentially lethal....
See this post for the only odds that matter - http://angband.oook.cz/forum/showthread.php?p=127625
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