How often do and what determines when Orodruth spawns?

protopulse · January 8, 2017, 00:29

Been playing smithing characters lately and saw in a few logs of a mention of Orodruth, which is a unique forge. Haven't seen it yet in any of the games I've played.

So I have to wonder what determines if it spawns at all? And what depth should I scum for it if I want to see it?

Pete Mack · January 8, 2017, 01:23

It occurs 1 in 10 enchanted forges, and enchanted forges have a roughly 1% higher chance of occurring every dungeon level deeper. So there's roughly a 2% -- actually 1-(.999)^19 -- chance of Orodruth on dl 19. It is pretty rare.

protopulse · January 8, 2017, 03:58

Ah, no wonder I haven't seen it yet. I guess scumming 950 feet is my best bet then.

Pete Mack · January 8, 2017, 04:33

But there's an 84% or better chance it occurs earlier. If it does and you miss it, it will not regenerate.

protopulse · January 8, 2017, 07:59

84%? Where did you get that number?

Actually, how does forge generation work? 1 in 10 enchanted forges is Orodruth. How many percent of forges are enchanted? How often do forges spawn?

Pete Mack · January 8, 2017, 08:09

edit: my bad. 16%, not 84%.
16% = 1-.999^(18*19/2)
The cumulative probability for Orodruth over levels 1-18. The same calculations work for enchanted forges, except using .99 instead of .999

protopulse · January 9, 2017, 03:59

Do you know the probability that Orodruth spawns on each level? Say level 1 (50 feet) versus level 19 (950 feet)? It's easier for me to understand if you explain it to me in those terms.

Pete Mack · January 9, 2017, 04:30

An additional 1/1000 roll on each level, so 1/1000 at level 1 -(999/1000)^2 ~ 0.002 at dl 2, etc, up to 1 - .999^19, just above the throne room. If you visit levels twice, there's a chance it will show up each time, so that increases the odds.

protopulse · January 9, 2017, 05:32

I see. Okay thank you.

captnamazing · April 17, 2017, 21:10

i saw it once man

it was fuckin awesome

i crafted some stuff

then i died

January 8, 2017, 00:29	#1
protopulse Apprentice Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 62	How often do and what determines when Orodruth spawns? Been playing smithing characters lately and saw in a few logs of a mention of Orodruth, which is a unique forge. Haven't seen it yet in any of the games I've played. So I have to wonder what determines if it spawns at all? And what depth should I scum for it if I want to see it?

January 8, 2017, 08:09	#6
Pete Mack Prophet Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 6,191 Donated: $40	edit: my bad. 16%, not 84%. 16% = 1-.999^(1819/2) The cumulative probability for Orodruth over levels 1-18. The same calculations work for enchanted forges, except using .99 instead of .999 Last edited by Pete Mack; January 8, 2017 at 08:30.*

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January 8, 2017, 01:23	#2
Pete Mack Prophet Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 6,191 Donated: $40	It occurs 1 in 10 enchanted forges, and enchanted forges have a roughly 1% higher chance of occurring every dungeon level deeper. So there's roughly a 2% -- actually 1-(.999)^19 -- chance of Orodruth on dl 19. It is pretty rare.

January 8, 2017, 03:58	#3
protopulse Apprentice Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 62	Ah, no wonder I haven't seen it yet. I guess scumming 950 feet is my best bet then.

January 8, 2017, 04:33	#4
Pete Mack Prophet Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 6,191 Donated: $40	But there's an 84% or better chance it occurs earlier. If it does and you miss it, it will not regenerate.

January 8, 2017, 07:59	#5
protopulse Apprentice Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 62	84%? Where did you get that number? Actually, how does forge generation work? 1 in 10 enchanted forges is Orodruth. How many percent of forges are enchanted? How often do forges spawn?

January 9, 2017, 03:59	#7
protopulse Apprentice Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 62	Do you know the probability that Orodruth spawns on each level? Say level 1 (50 feet) versus level 19 (950 feet)? It's easier for me to understand if you explain it to me in those terms.

January 9, 2017, 04:30	#8
Pete Mack Prophet Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 6,191 Donated: $40	An additional 1/1000 roll on each level, so 1/1000 at level 1 -(999/1000)^2 ~ 0.002 at dl 2, etc, up to 1 - .999^19, just above the throne room. If you visit levels twice, there's a chance it will show up each time, so that increases the odds.

January 9, 2017, 05:32	#9
protopulse Apprentice Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 62	I see. Okay thank you.

April 17, 2017, 21:10	#10
captnamazing Scout Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 31	i saw it once man it was fuckin awesome i crafted some stuff then i died

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