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Old December 21, 2010, 18:23   #41
Colbey
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I think part of the problem is unlimited range plus skew (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness). The problem (anecdotally, I haven't looked at the code) is that the mean and variance are both fine, but that the data has such a positive skew that over a relatively small number of samples you're very likely to be under the mean. It only averages out if you play long enough that you're quite likely to hit one or more "lotteries". Having a median below the mean is a typical indication of skew.

Similarly, the average/mean return on actual real-life lotteries can be as high as 60%, but you're very unlikely to reach the mean or even close to it, unless you play thousands of times (or, depending on the lottery, millions).
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Old December 21, 2010, 18:40   #42
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Now, if DaJ and Eddie both had a x4 mult (from dl3 onwards) of 3.0.9 gold drops, then the only datum I need is: by what factor were 3.0.9's gold drops reduced in 3.1.0? Can anyone tell me this to save me an hour's faffing about with git?
http://rephial.org/research/avg_gold_drop.pdf should tell you a lot of what you need to know
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Old December 21, 2010, 18:48   #43
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Originally Posted by takkaria View Post
http://rephial.org/research/avg_gold_drop.pdf should tell you a lot of what you need to know
Thank you. What that tells me is that for the first FORTY dungeon levels the drops have hardly changed at all, which is completely contrary to what people are saying. Deeper in the dungeon the new drops are indeed less - but all the discussion about no_selling has been in the first forty levels.

So I am keen to see how people feel about no_selling with the new x5 multiplier: according to the graph, this should be *more* generous in the early game than either DaJ's or Eddie's implementations. (And before Eddie jumps down my throat, yes I know armour and weapons are more expensive than in 3.0.9, but consumables aren't, and the original criticism was about when people with no_selling on can buy ?WoR, wands etc.)
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Old December 21, 2010, 19:01   #44
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How was that data collected? It'd also be good to see a zoom-in on the first 30 levels or so; the Y scale's gotten flattened because of the high upper end. I know for a fact that I never saw single-digit treasure drops in the old days (and I'm pretty certain that getting less than 20 gold from a drop was a rarity), and now I see them all the time early on.
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Old December 21, 2010, 19:15   #45
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How about just rolling Nd6, where N is determined by the treasure type? Copper = 5, adamantite = 200, everything else is in-between. Nice and simple, known distribution, easy to balance. I'm not really seeing the value-add in making this particular formula super-complicated.
You have to determine the treasure type first in order to make that work. Current approach works out the value and assigns the money type in accordance with that. Without the 'infinite variance' code, the spread is already pretty simple and easy to understand: average is 2*dlev + 20, spread is dlev + 10.
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Old December 21, 2010, 19:29   #46
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Thank you. What that tells me is that for the first FORTY dungeon levels the drops have hardly changed at all, which is completely contrary to what people are saying.
This was the average before the infinite variance stuff was put in, which accounts for the difference, I think.
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Old December 21, 2010, 19:36   #47
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How was that data collected? It'd also be good to see a zoom-in on the first 30 levels or so; the Y scale's gotten flattened because of the high upper end. I know for a fact that I never saw single-digit treasure drops in the old days (and I'm pretty certain that getting less than 20 gold from a drop was a rarity), and now I see them all the time early on.
I made a spreadsheet (no idea where it is now, sadly) that used the game's own function and plotted it. It was quite complex.

Here's another graph of the old gold distribution I found: http://rephial.org/research/cur_gold_drops.pdf. This one was made by running 1000 of each 5 dungeon levels and plotting the amount of gold found if you killed all monsters on each one. Not sure what it looks like now, but I guess fizzix does.
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Old December 21, 2010, 21:58   #48
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Originally Posted by takkaria View Post
http://rephial.org/research/avg_gold_drop.pdf should tell you a lot of what you need to know
I simply do not believe that. There's got to be something wrong with your method. Or a bug in money stacking, or something.

In 3.1, I got close to squelching money even playing non-ironman. I observed that money I picked up was insignificant compared to what I got from selling. I only left it unsquelched for flavor, and stopped going more than a couple of keystrokes out of my way to pick it up.

When I played 3.0 to test how much harder it would be with no egos, so I was level clearing, I was reminded over and over how much more money was available.
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Old December 21, 2010, 22:12   #49
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I simply do not believe that. There's got to be something wrong with your method. Or a bug in money stacking, or something.
Probably the fact that deep levels contain a lot of monsters with ONLY_ITEM counts a lot in that. Money drops are insignificant because you don't kill monsters with money drops.
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Old December 21, 2010, 23:41   #50
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Probably the fact that deep levels contain a lot of monsters with ONLY_ITEM counts a lot in that. Money drops are insignificant because you don't kill monsters with money drops.
I'm thinking about the second trip of the game, say from DL15 to DL30. It wasn't quite so bad in my current 3.2 trial. Perhaps the egos or ego quality have been toned down or it could be variance.
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