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March 12, 2020, 02:36   #11
Derakon
Prophet

Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,015
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sky are you totally sure this is right?
I'm sure. In older versions, monsters that spawned into the level after you entered it were always generated awake.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DavidMedley What are the numbers behind this maxim? Really rough order-of-magnitude calculation:
Let's say that any given action has a 1 in 400000 chance of killing you. We can call this a super-"safe" playstyle, where you strive to avoid any risk that can be avoided and don't dive until you feel secure. Your odds of not dying in your first 100k turns then is (399999/400000)^100000 ~= 78%. If you take 200k turns then your odds of survival drop to ~60%. 400k turns and it drops to ~37%.

Now let's say that any given action has a 1 in 200000 chance of killing you. Twice as dangerous! Now your odds of not dying in your first 100k turns is ~60%, and of surviving 200k turns is 37% (it happens that the math works out that way: (199/200)^100 ~= (399/400)^200).

Now obviously these odds-of-dying numbers are made up, but hopefully it illustrates the principle. Anecdotally, when I see winning dumps posted by the "slow and careful" players, they tend to have turn counts north of 200k, while fast players usually come in under 100k.

With the death odds posted above, two such characters would have equal odds of having died prior to victory, but one has twice as much real-world time invested in it. So if your metric for success is "victories per real-world hour", then an aggressive playstyle seems appropriate. On the other hand, if your metric for success is cumulative victory rate (e.g. you're going for a win streak), then a slower and more methodical style makes sense.

 March 12, 2020, 10:46 #12 Pete Mack Prophet   Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 5,656 Donated: \$40 Back in the day, slow and careful meant (roughly) over 1,000,000 game turns, often well over that.
March 12, 2020, 12:46   #13
DavidMedley
Swordsman

Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 418
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Philip if you die 5x more per turn, but on average take 10% of turns to win the game than you ordinarily would, then you will win twice as many games as you would otherwise.
I see now that I misread this. I thought he meant 10% less turns, but he means 10% total turns aka 90% less turns. Yeah, that kind of speed would be worth some risks!!

March 12, 2020, 13:10   #14
Sideways
Swordsman

Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 468
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Pete Mack Back in the day, slow and careful meant (roughly) over 1,000,000 game turns, often well over that.
Game turns are different from player turns, though; and the V ladder displays player turns now. 1,000,000 game turns wouldn't stand out as an exceptionally slow run even today.
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